Individual Dietary Specialization in a Generalist Bee Varies across Populations but Has No Effect on the Richness of Associated Microbial Communities.

AbstractDespite the increasingly documented occurrence of individual specialization, the relationship between individual consumer interactions and diet-related microbial communities in wild populations is still unclear. Using data from nests of Ceratina australensis from three different wild bee populations, we combine metabarcoding and network approaches to explore the existence of individual variation in resource use within and across populations and whether dietary specialization affects the richness of pollen-associated microbes. We reveal the existence of marked dietary specialization. In the most specialized population, we also show that individuals' diet breadth was positively related to the richness of fungi but not bacteria. Overall, individual specialization appeared to have a weak or negligible effect on the microbial richness of nests, suggesting that different mechanisms beyond environmental transmission may be at play regarding microbial acquisition in wild bees.

Hidden effects of habitat restoration on the persistence of pollination networks.

Past and recent studies have focused on the effects of global change drivers such as species invasions on species extinction. However, as we enter the United Nations Decade of Ecosystem Restoration the aim must switch to understanding how invasive-species management affects the persistence of the remaining species in a community. Focusing on plant-pollinator interactions, we test how species persistence is affected by restoration via the removal of invasive plant species. Restoration had a clear positive effect on plant persistence, whereas there was no difference between across treatments for pollinator persistence in the early season, but a clear effect in late season, with higher persistence in unrestored sites. Network structure affected only pollinator persistence, while centrality had a strong positive effect on both plants and pollinators. Our results suggest a hidden effect of invasive plants-although they may compete with native plant species, invasive plants may provide important resources for pollinators, at least in the short term.

Pollinator interaction flexibility across scales affects patch colonization and occupancy.

Global change alters ecological communities and may disrupt ecological interactions and the provision of ecosystem functions. As ecological communities respond to global change, species may either go locally extinct or form novel interactions. To date, few studies have assessed how flexible species are in their interaction patterns, mainly due to the scarcity of data spanning long time series. Using a ten-year species-level dataset on the assembly of mutualistic networks from the Central Valley in California, we test whether interaction flexibility affects pollinators' colonization and persistence and their resulting habitat occupancy in a highly modified landscape. We propose three metrics of interaction flexibility associated with different scales of organization within ecological communities and explore which species' traits affect them. Our results provide empirical evidence linking species' ability to colonize habitat patches across a landscape to the role they play in networks. Phenological breadth and body size had contrasting effects on interaction flexibility. We demonstrate the relationship between mutualistic networks and species' ability to colonize and persist in the landscape, suggesting interaction flexibility as a potential mechanism for communities to maintain ecosystem function despite changes in community composition.

Structural vulnerability of hospitals, cemeteries, and crematoriums of the city of São Paulo to COVID-19 / Vulnerabilidade estrutural dos hospitais e cemitérios e crematórios da cidade de São Paulo à COVID-19

This is the first report by the COVID19 Observatory - Group: Contagion Networks analyzing mortality data from the city of São Paulo. In this report, we integrated mortality data for the city of São Paulo between 04/02/2020 and 04/28/2020, with information on the flow of victims between hospitals and cemeteries/crematoriums. We included in our analyzes both confirmed and suspected deaths from COVID-19. The main objectives of this report were: (1) to describe the structure of the flow of victims between locations and (2) to suggest changes in the current flow based on geographical distances in order to avoid a potential overload of the mortuary system. We suggest that the city of São Paulo should plan for a potential overload of the mortuary system (that is, the number of burials), based on the presented results. Thus, our results reinforce the need to adopt specific planning for the management of the extraordinary number of victims of this pandemic. Our predictions are based on the structural analysis of the COVID-19 victim flow network, which shows several hotspots with high vulnerability to system overload. These hotspots concentrate with either the greatest number of deaths (hospital) or of burials (cemetery or crematorium), and therefore have high potential to become overwhelmed by receiving many bodies due to the increase in victims of the pandemic. We recommend special attention to be given to localities on the east side of São Paulo, which has both the most vulnerable hospitals in the city, and also houses cemeteries and crematoriums that have a central role in the network and / or are vulnerable. Based on our optimization analysis, we suggest logistical changes in the current flow of bodies from hospitals to cemeteries/crematoriums so as not to overload the funeral system and minimize transportation costs. In this sense, our results are potentially useful for improving the operational planning of the Municipality of São Paulo, ratifying or rectifying actions underway at the municipal level.

Este é o primeiro relatório do Observatório COVID19 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio analisando os dados de óbitos da cidade de São Paulo. Neste relatório, integramos os dados de óbitos da cidade de São Paulo entre os dias 02/04/2020 e 28/04/2020 com informações sobre o fluxo de vítimas entre os hospitais e os cemitérios e crematórios da cidade de São Paulo. Incluímos em nossas análises óbitos confirmados e óbitos suspeitos de COVID-19. Os principais objetivos deste relatório são: (1) descrever a estrutura do fluxo de vítimas entre localidades e (2) sugerir mudanças no fluxo com base em distâncias geográficas de maneira a evitar uma potencial sobrecarga do sistema funerário. Sugere-se à prefeitura da cidade de São Paulo que seja realizado um planejamento para uma potencial sobrecarga do sistema funerário (isto é, número de sepultamentos) da cidade de São Paulo com base nos resultados apresentados. Desta forma, nossos resultados reforçam a necessidade de ser adotado planejamento específico para a gestão dos casos extraordinários visualizados no contexto da pandemia. Esta previsão está baseada na análise estrutural da rede de fluxos de vítimas da COVID-19, que indica a concentração de vários locais com alta vulnerabilidade à sobrecarga do sistema. Tais locais concentram a maior quantidade de óbitos (hospitais) ou a maior concentração de sepultamentos (cemitérios ou crematórios) e tem portanto alto potencial de tornarem-se sobrecarregados por receberem muitos corpos devido ao aumento de vítimas da pandemia. Recomenda-se especial atenção à localidades da zona leste de São Paulo, que apresenta os hospitais mais vulneráveis da cidade e abriga cemitérios e crematórios que possuem papel central na rede e/ou encontram-se vulneráveis. Com base em nossa análise de otimização, sugerimos mudanças logísticas no atual fluxo de corpos de hospitais para cemitérios/crematórios de modo a não sobrecarregar o sistema funerário e minimizar os custos de transporte. Neste sentido, nossos resultados são potencialmente úteis ao aperfeiçoamento do planejamento operacional da Prefeitura Municipal de São Paulo, ratificando ou retificando ações em curso no âmbito municipal.

Vulnerability of micro-regions within Northeast Brazil to the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic / Vulnerabilidade das microrregiões do Nordeste brasileiro à pandemia do novo coronavírus (SARS-CoV-2)

Report from "Observatório COVID19 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio ­ Laboratório de Estudos de Defesa" for the Northeast Region of Brazil. We combined data on confirmed cases of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) as reported by public authorities by 02/04 and structural analyses of road transport networks within and between the nine States of Northeast Brazil to predict the potential influence of the 187 micro-regions on the geographic propagation of the pandemic.  

Este é o primeiro relatório do Observatório COVID1920 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio ­ Laboratório de Estudos de Defesa para a região Nordeste do Brasil. Combinamos dados de casos confirmados do novo coronavírus (SARS-CoV-2) para o Nordeste, conforme disponível até o dia 02/04, com análises estruturais da rede de rotas rodoviárias intra e interestaduais para estimarmos a vulnerabilidade e potencial influência das microrregiões nordestinas na propagação da doença.

Vulnerability of the micro-regions of the South of Brazil to the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic / Vulnerabilidade das microrregiões da Região Sul do Brasil à pandemia do novo coronavírus (SARS-CoV-2)

This is the first report of the 'Observatório COVID191 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio ­ Laboratório de Estudos de Defesa' for the South region of Brazil. We have combined data of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) for the South available up to 17/04/2020, with structural analyses of road networks, from within and between states, to estimate the vulnerability and potential influence of the South micro-regions to propagate the disease.

Este é o primeiro relatório do Observatório COVID19 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio ­ Laboratório de Estudos de Defesa para a região Sul do Brasil. Combinamos dados de casos confirmados do novo coronavírus (SARS-CoV-2) para o Sul, disponíveis até o dia 17/04/2020, com análises estruturais da rede de rotas rodoviárias intra e interestaduais para estimarmos a vulnerabilidade e potencial influência das microrregiões sulinas na propagação da doença.

Full-annual demography and seasonal cycles in a resident vertebrate.

Wildlife demography is typically studied at a single point in time within a year when species, often during the reproductive season, are more active and therefore easier to find. However, this provides only a low-resolution glimpse into demographic temporal patterns over time and may hamper a more complete understanding of the population dynamics of a species over the full annual cycle. The full annual cycle is often influenced by environmental seasonality, which induces a cyclic behavior in many species. However, cycles have rarely been explicitly included in models for demographic parameters, and most information on full annual cycle demography is restricted to migratory species. Here we used a high-resolution capture-recapture study of a resident tropical lizard to assess the full intra-annual demography and within-year periodicity in survival, temporary emigration and recapture probabilities. We found important variation over the annual cycle and up to 92% of the total monthly variation explained by cycles. Fine-scale demographic studies and assessments on the importance of cycles within parameters may be a powerful way to achieve a better understanding of population persistence over time.

Interaction strength promotes robustness against cascading effects in mutualistic networks.

Perturbations, such as fluctuations in abundance, can ripple across species assemblages through ecological interactions. Furthermore, the way in which ecological interactions are organized into a network and the interaction strengths connecting species may be important for cascading effects. Previous work revealed that network structure determines how cascading effects spread across species assemblages. A next step is to understand how interaction strengths influence cascading effects. Here, we assume that perturbations have negative effects, and we evaluate whether interaction strength affects network robustness to cascading effects in mutualistic interactions, and examine the role of network structure in mediating perturbation cascades when interaction strength is incorporated. We combine empirical data on 18 mutualistic networks, two simulations scenarios, and network theory, to investigate how network structure affects perturbation spreading time, a proxy of network robustness to cascading effects. Simulations in which we included interaction strength presented higher mean spreading time, indicating that interaction strength increases network robustness. Richness, modularity, and nestedness had a strong, positive effect, on mean perturbation spreading time regardless of the interaction strengths. We found that network structure and the distribution of interaction strengths affected communities' robustness to perturbation spreading. Our results contribute to the discussion on the danger that ecosystems face when species, and interactions alike, become extinct.

Contemporary Ecological Interactions Improve Models of Past Trait Evolution.

Despite the fact that natural selection underlies both traits and interactions, evolutionary models often neglect that ecological interactions may, and in many cases do, influence the evolution of traits. Herein, we explore the interdependence of ecological interactions and functional traits in the pollination associations of hawkmoths and flowering plants. Specifically, we develop an adaptation of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model of trait evolution that allows us to study the influence of plant corolla depth and observed hawkmoth-plant interactions on the evolution of hawkmoth proboscis length. Across diverse modelling scenarios, we find that the inclusion of contemporary interactions can provide a better description of trait evolution than the null expectation. Moreover, we show that the pollination interactions provide more-likely models of hawkmoth trait evolution when interactions are considered at increasingly fine-scale groups of hawkmoths. Finally, we demonstrate how the results of best-fit modeling approaches can implicitly support the association between interactions and trait evolution that our method explicitly examines. In showing that contemporary interactions can provide insight into the historical evolution of hawkmoth proboscis length, we demonstrate the clear utility of incorporating additional ecological information to models designed to study past trait evolution.

Opportunistic attachment assembles plant-pollinator networks.

Species and interactions are being lost at alarming rates and it is imperative to understand how communities assemble if we have to prevent their collapse and restore lost interactions. Using an 8-year dataset comprising nearly 20 000 pollinator visitation records, we explore the assembly of plant-pollinator communities at native plant restoration sites in an agricultural landscape. We find that species occupy highly dynamic network positions through time, causing the assembly process to be punctuated by major network reorganisations. The most persistent pollinator species are also the most variable in their network positions, contrary to what preferential attachment - the most widely studied theory of ecological network assembly - predicts. Instead, we suggest assembly occurs via an opportunistic attachment process. Our results contribute to our understanding of how communities assembly and how species interactions change through time while helping to inform efforts to reassemble robust communities.

Seasonal Variation in Population Abundance and Chytrid Infection in Stream-Dwelling Frogs of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.

Enigmatic amphibian declines were first reported in southern and southeastern Brazil in the late 1980s and included several species of stream-dwelling anurans (families Hylodidae and Cycloramphidae). At that time, we were unaware of the amphibian-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd); therefore, pollution, habitat loss, fragmentation and unusual climatic events were hypothesized as primary causes of these declines. We now know that multiple lineages of Bd have infected amphibians of the Brazilian Atlantic forest for over a century, yet declines have not been associated specifically with Bd outbreaks. Because stream-dwelling anurans occupy an environmental hotspot ideal for disease transmission, we investigated temporal variation in population and infection dynamics of three stream-adapted species (Hylodes asper, H. phyllodes, and Cycloramphus boraceiensis) on the northern coast of São Paulo state, Brazil. We surveyed standardized transects along streams for four years, and show that fluctuations in the number of frogs correlate with specific climatic variables that also increase the likelihood of Bd infections. In addition, we found that Bd infection probability in C. boraceiensis, a nocturnal species, was significantly higher than in Hylodes spp., which are diurnal, suggesting that the nocturnal activity may either facilitate Bd zoospore transmission or increase susceptibility of hosts. Our findings indicate that, despite long-term persistence of Bd in Brazil, some hosts persist with seasonally variable infections, and thus future persistence in the face of climate change will depend on the relative effect of those changes on frog recruitment and pathogen proliferation.